海外之声 | 一带一路绿色投资原则与中亚经济发展
导读
哈萨克斯坦乃至中亚五国地处远东、欧洲、中东的交界地带，深受地缘政治不稳定因素和紧张关系影响，因而其金融市场和经济发展面临巨大挑战。鉴于此，该地区区域内和区域间的经济一体化显得尤为重要。不论是东盟（ASEAN）、北美自贸协定（NAFTA，美加墨自贸协定的前身），还是欧共体（EEC），区域经济合作所承载的经济贸易规模、带来的经济发展红利都是很好的例证。一带一路倡议的基础设施建设项目有利于增强该地区供应链的稳定性、实现真正意义上的“互联互通”，为中亚经济贸易一体化与合作奠定重要基础。
与此同时，全球变暖带来的气候风险使得经济发展去碳化、发展循环经济成为必然，包括哈萨克斯坦在内的中亚国家也都在纷纷采取行动致力于实现碳中和。“一带一路”绿色投资原则（GIP）强调发展的可持续性和ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）、投资绿色技术和基础设施建设，以实现低碳的可持续发展。投资管理集团贝莱德、新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡等金融机构正纷纷转向绿色投资项目。不仅如此，金融监管机构、市场主体等各相关方都应积极参与可持续性相关披露、加强环境风险应对。
绿色投资原则应当进一步与中亚当地各相关方交流合作，推广绿色金融产品与活动，推动绿色和可持续投资，为企业和投资者提供咨询意见和问题解决方案，建立绿色项目数据库从而增强环境和气候信息披露。为了更好地引导投资，从而更好地应对气候风险、促进可持续发展，各方应参与其中、积极合作。
作者 | 亚辛•安瓦尔，IMI国际顾问委员、巴基斯坦央行原行长英文原文如下：
Green Investment, an integral part of Belt and Road Initiative
This is a keynote speech at the Central Asia Green Growth Forum (GIP) in Kazakhstan on July 2, 2021.
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. Firstly, I wish to congratulate the AIFC Green Finance Centre for organizing this most impressive Green Growth Forum. I am also grateful and honored to be invited to speak today and share my brief thoughts on this important global effort, an effort that has been endorsed by all U.N. member countries as vital for our planet.
The Belt Road Initiative (BRI) and the importance of Climate Risk embedded in Green Investment Principles (GIP) complement each other in supporting Infrastructure that in itself is critical for economic development. The strategic geographical location of Kazakhstan is the gateway between Europe, the Far East, and the Middle East via Pakistan’s ports. To ensure Central Asia extracts value and achieves success in economic development, we must overcome the challenges of global uncertainty and volatility we face on a daily basis as well as the geopolitical tensions and upheavals that are a daily phenomena that impact us all. Such uncertainties do not bode well for financial markets and economic development. However, one long term constant retains its consistency in support of global economic growth & development for all participating countries and that is the Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Why, because it provides access to capital to developing countries on a scale never before available in history for their long term economic development.
As a former Central Banker, I would like to highlight two key themes: 1) The importance of BRI/Central Asia & Pakistan going forward for economic integration & development (I underscore integration & development) and 2) Climate Risk with Sustainability for the new Central Asia GIP Chapter, its role, and road map going forward to make this region a robust & vibrant one. One that sets a benchmark of success for others to follow.
Regional integration being critical for success, I would like to cite a successful analogy. As an integrated region, ASEAN countries have established RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) comprising 16 countries as of 2020. RCEP countries together account for one third of global domestic product (GDP) and nearly half the world’s population. Within RCEP, 10 countries comprise the ASEAN region.
To bring economic trade in perspective, Trade within the ASEAN countries comprises approximately 25% of their total trade. On the other hand, the European Economic Community (EEC) and NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) comprises 63%. Corrective steps obviously need to be taken by ASEAN to achieve optimal intra-regional benefits.
Supply Chains are shifting in ASEAN as the region works on connectivity across SouthEast Asia and China and concurrently willhasten implementation of BRI as these countries’ infrastructure will be enhanced with increased business activities and better Investment opportunities. Leading Logistics Firms in Singapore are rapidly shifting gears to adapt and adjust to serve Client needs in a cost effective manner.
Now why do I cite Singapore and ASEAN? Because of its success!
In contrast, Central Asia Republics & Pakistan is the least integrated region in the world and is exposed to exogenous shocks experienced globally from the 2008 GFC (Global Financial Crisis). Global and regional integration requires uniformity, equality, and common attributes in Financial Markets which we do not have. I should point out that Pakistan is the largest single recipient country under BRI with $62 Billion and has already developed some of the largest infrastructure projects, particularly in Power. The country can be an important pivot between China, Central Asia, and Middle East/Africa.
The importance of Central Asia under BRI centers on two of the six economic corridors under construction that run through the region: 1) the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor and 2) the New Eurasia Land Bridge.
These two Central Asian BRI economic corridors could merge and connect with the northern route of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and enter China. The land locked countries would have access to the favored port of Gwadar, opening a wider corridor to the Middle East/Africa and vice versa. The current CPEC projects in Pakistan emphasize the projects that will benefit these economic corridors in Connectivity, Information network, Infrastructure, Energy, Industry & Industrial Parks, and Agricultural Development projects.
Trade currently within the Central Asian Republics& Pakistan is limited and the following areas have the potential to increase exponentially:
●Hydrocarbons (crude oil & natural gas) and metals are the leading items exported by the Central Asian states. Setting up of oil pipelines will allow for more efficient movement of these products.
●Pakistan’s SEZs, once fully functional for the Industrial sector, will enhance the country’s productive capacity and provide a major impetus for economic and social development through new Supply Chains.
●The Agriculture sector should be mechanized with technological advancement that would increase both productivity and quality of the output produced. Logistical hurdles once removed, will make regional trade within Central Asia and with M.E./Africa more economically feasible.
●Finally, cultural integration will open new tourism opportunities and expand this segment towards Socio-Economic growth.
In order for regional integration to succeed, Government Policies in conjunction with GIP can play an important role with well-coordinated leadership to implement principles in support of BRI with over 100 countries that emphasize ESG standards. This in itself is GIP’s strength as opposed to embarking on an individual and fragmented ad hoc approach. A testament of its strength is being an important part of this Forum.
However we are at the tip of the iceberg as we move forward to incorporate the projects already in the global pipeline under BRI. Investment consultants estimate the ESG market globally to comprise more than $40 Trillion. As such, we need to educate, elevate knowledge, monitor and influence the Urbanization of developing nations as well as the demographic trends to ensure ESG standards are met with sustainability.
This leads me into my second theme of Climate change that has become a risk that is too important to ignore. To quote my good friend Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, “Climate change presents significant risks to the financial system. At the same time, the financial sector plays a key role in the fight against climate change. 1) Finance is key to unlocking a sustainable future and 2) It can support the transition to a less carbon intensive economy by channeling capital to green technologies and infrastructure”.
The President of Kazakhstan reaffirmed in his recent address at the Climate Ambition Summit that Kazakhstan has taken a course for a deep decarbonization of the economy and the development of a circular economy, committing to become a carbon-neutral country by 2060. Uzbekistan intends to move to carbon-neutral electricity production by 2050. In 2018, Kyrgyzstan adopted a Concept on Green Economy aimed at significantly reducing risks to the environment, preserving the country's natural ecosystems and increasing natural capital. So, the countries in Central Asia have committed to transition to lower-carbon economies and are gradually working out measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, develop renewable energy sources, and raise energy efficiency.
These commitments are commendable and AIFC in Kazakhstan, within its jurisdiction, is working on the development of a green capital market (taxonomy, Green bond rules, support of green bond issuers, proposals to Environmental code and subsidy schemes for green projects, etc.). In order for effective implementation, it is imperative to align the entire financial system with sustainable development, involving the national financial regulators and all market participants. In fact, GIP can be instrumental in supporting the financial sector transition to a greener path.
Furthermore, the Central Bank and Regulator need to lead in strengthening the financial sector against environmental risk. We need to enhance environmental risk management in our financial institutions and also elevate sustainability related disclosures. In fact I am actively involved with the State Bank of Pakistan that has already embarked on this program by forming Working Groups, Steering Committee, and a road map for training programs over the next year.
As mentioned earlier, climate change has become a risk that is too important to ignore.
●The world needs to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions if we are to limit global warming to well below 2, and preferably 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels as committed under the Paris Agreement.
●This implies a major transformation of economies and societies; affecting how we work and how we live.
●The National Academy of Sciences has forecasted that 1/3rd of the global population will need to relocate by 2070 due to climate change i.e. relocation due to unlivable conditions.
●The transition is not only about renewables and electric cars; Greening will have to take place across all industries: Steel, cement, mining, building, construction, maritime, agriculture, etc.
In addition Sustainable Investing is becoming a high priority:
●Interesting to note during the Covid-19 Pandemic, carbon emissions were down by approximately 17%.
●Blackrock, the largest Asset Manager, announced last year it has made sustainable investing a cornerstone of its long term objectives and currently has over $90 Billion in its ETFs that comply with ESG standards.
●Recently Temasek, the Singapore Sovereign Wealth Fund, took a 3.9% stake in Blackrock in support of sustainable investing. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has established a dedicated office to promote ESG standards in its banking sector.
●ICBC Sg in 2019 launched a $2.2 Billion multicurrency BRBR bond in support of BRI related projects.
●HSBC recently announced a JV to form the world’s largest natural capital manager targeting $3 Billion. This JV will be the first large-scale venture to mainstream natural capital as an Asset Class.
●G.E. last year announced it was exiting the Coal Fired power plant business.
●Both Public & Private Sector interest is positive and moving in concert to support Green Finance.
It is evident from the facts I have cited, that the world has recognized Climate Risk as a critical area and I would like to outline the key areas that GIP will focus on for the new Central Asia Chapter:
●The key role of the Central Asia Chapter is to engage more closely with local stakeholders, including financial institutions, regulators, MDBs and research institutions;
The core function of the Chapter is to help disseminate GIP related knowledge of products and activities, build capacity for green and sustainable investment, as well as solve practical problems faced by investors and corporates who wish to make more green investments;
●The Chapter will also try and bridge the information gap on green projects by collecting project information by sharing with GIP members through its green project database;
●The Chapter will be encouraged to host its own activities focusing on regional needs, while connecting with other chapters and the GIP global secretariat.
●The Chair and Chapter will be available to answer questions to the GIP and could facilitate any prospective institutions in becoming GIP members.
In conclusion, I would like to underscore the huge opportunity we have in showing to the world how the Central Asia region can assimilate its knowledge base and resources to develop a clear long term path to carbon neutrality. The transition to a net zero economy is the greatest collective endeavour we must undertake going forward. How Capital is allocated to support this effort is a priority, and as Central Bankers, Regulators, and Financial Institutions, we have a responsibility to direct investments to activities that promote sustainable development. Let us all work together to achieve that goal for a better future.
编辑 查王皓天
编译 张赢月
责编 李锦璇、蒋旭
监制 朱霜霜、董熙君
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